Fireweed Metals and What it Takes to be the Best
CEO Brandon Macdonald joined me for an in-depth and reflective conversation on the past and future of Fireweed Metals. With a world-class team and world-class projects, Fireweed commands attention.
tl;dr:
I sat down with Fireweed Metals (FWZ.V) CEO Brandon Macdonald for a far-reaching discussion on Thursday, December 22. Building off implied general knowledge of Fireweed, the focus of this conversation was not so much meant to be an overview of the company as it was an opportunity to dig deeper into specific topics and concepts related to it. Brandon reflects on his own time as CEO of FWZ, the strength of his team and its teamwork, the importance of geological originality and expertise, infrastructure developments related to mining in Yukon, and more.
Part 1: Companion Article
Part 2: Written Summary and Timestamps
Part 1: Companion Article
Like with any other subject, the best guarantee of success in this sector is a commitment to constant learning. This means sifting through news and data to confirm and correct preexisting assumptions. It means learning from countless examples what success - and failure - looks like. What are their characteristics, their clues and tells, their advanced warning signs.
The ultimate goal is to use these data points to weave together a meaningful enough perspective of the sector that you can identify and inhabit an edge - whatever your edge may be - to carve out material returns. If you can begin to reliably identify potential sources of Alpha, you obviously have an inherent advantage in an extremely competitive space.
I say all this as preamble to the point I ultimately want to make: Fireweed Metals has been a rare and incredible success recently in a sector that at the best of times is fraught with danger, and in more recent times feels like it requires downright insanity to be involved in.
And, more to the point, it is exactly this success that makes Fireweed Metals a critical case study to examine by investors looking to hone whatever edge it is they are trying to develop within the market. Because there are many lessons - from psychology, to charting, to jurisdiction, to geology - to learn from Fireweed. And if you could analyse and coalesce some lessons from Fireweed’s success, it could potentially help you identify those traits in other companies and projects down the road.
And so, rather than summarise the slide deck of a company already known so well by the market, I wanted to go a step or two up the learning pyramid and ask Brandon questions of deeper understanding. Why was Fireweed a success where others failed? What aspects and characteristics of it helped to build that success?
This ultimately became the crux of my conversation with Brandon. Whether discussing his own experiences growing as a CEO or port development funding, Brandon provides many examples in our discussion of success - what it is and isn’t, what it looks like, and how to foster it. I would encourage you to view the interview in its entirety as Brandon freely and generously shared his thoughts on many topics, but the following are perhaps the 4 core lessons I took away from my time with him:
1. True Leadership Means Others Have Power Too
Brandon spoke repeatedly about the credit he gives his team, and the confidence he has in their input. Rather than an autocratic, top-down decision-making structure, Brandon and Fireweed have fostered and encouraged a democratised approach.
Opposing views are not just performatively tolerated but viewed as essential, as the debate they spark ultimately helps to build clarity and conviction in the ultimate choice decided on. Rather than safeguarding his authority like a petty tyrant, Brandon leans on the expertise of others - whether it is his diverse and committed “white collar” board, or his “boots on the ground” team of geos. Leadership is recognising others know more than you and are better than you at many things. To not rely on the expertise of your team is a critical failure of management and limits the potential of your organisation. This is not an issue with Fireweed.
2. Clear Jurisdictional Support is Key
This is an interesting one. I want to distinguish this from “Tier 1 Jurisdiction”, though there is obviously overlap. I am a big advocate of minimising non-geological risk, and that theme shone through in our conversation. Fireweed’s projects - huge and world-class though they are - due to their incredible remoteness will live and die by the support they receive from stakeholders in the project - ranging all the way from local Indigenous communities to territorial, Federal, and even international governments.
This means operating according to best practice in the areas under your control - bringing local stakeholders onside by consistently displaying good-faith commitment to understanding and addressing their needs and concerns (authentic ESG is a strength of FWZ’s). But this also means understanding which way the wind is blowing on larger scales, and if your relevant state actors aren’t clearly moving in support of your project, it may be time to consider cutting bait.
In the case of the Fireweed Metals, Yukon’s infrastructure commitments, such as improving their road and highway system or announcing their financial support for (Alaskan) Skagway’s port are the sorts of signals you want to see from your explore co’s jurisdiction. This clear, structural support allows both Fireweed and its investors to focus on realising the potential of their projects, not worrying about extraneous details. Yukon is building jurisdiction into an advantage, rather than an obstacle, for its resource sector.
3. Try to Find “Best in Class” Projects to Invest In
This wasn’t specifically something Brandon mentioned, but something that was swirling in my mind throughout our discussion. The junior resource sector is incredibly crowded. It can be almost impossible sometimes for companies to distinguish them and their projects from others. With more projects available to choose from than could ever possibly hope to become a mine, investors need to build personal criteria to help filter through the immense amount of noise.
One that stands out to me as emblematic of Fireweed’s approach is to not waste time faffing about investing in small projects trying to patch together a half million or million ounces of gold, even if the value proposition is strong. These can end up value traps, as there is no practical path forward for that discounted value to ever rerate positively. The sector is awash with these types of projects, and so their progression and development and value-event (for investors in them) are inevitably and invariably bottlenecked.
Rather, a lesson Fireweed seems to teach is for investors to seek out the projects that look world-class in some way. Those are the ones that catch the eye of all investors, from retail to family bank, to mining major. Those are the projects that will always have greater potential for healthy, value-additive, M&A efforts. These are the projects that will continue to progress and develop even in adverse market conditions. And these are the kinds of projects Fireweed Metals has collected.
![Fireweed Metals on X: "[NEWS] Fireweed Metals Announces Mineral Resources for the Mactung Project: the Largest High-Grade Tungsten Deposit in the World Full Release: https://t.co/2WUrHma9Bb $FWZ.V $FWEDF https://t.co/9ITZUdDqji" / X](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eGfw!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e3b8f61-7d65-4057-8c05-9945f15a5057_1400x700.jpeg "Fireweed Metals on X: \"[NEWS] Fireweed Metals Announces Mineral Resources for the Mactung Project: the Largest High-Grade Tungsten Deposit in the World Full Release: https://t.co/2WUrHma9Bb $FWZ.V $FWEDF https://t.co/9ITZUdDqji\" / X")
4. Success is Built From Patience and Failure
Brandon mentions this directly and indirectly a number of times. He reflects on the core characteristic of successful entrepreneurs (which resource junior CEOs most certainly are) being resiliency - that success isn’t a straight line, and you have to be willing to get up and dust yourself off one more time every time you fall down. There is an inherently reflective approach built into this - failures always present opportunities to learn and improve. Brandon spoke in detail on what I take to be the humility that is required to achieve mastery - you can only ever improve by confronting your own mistakes and weakness.
However, this is not just philosophical life coaching. There are very practical, action-oriented expressions of this in mining as well. A big one is accepting that the most important part of any successful discovery is the failures that preceded it. Geological exploration is a deeply iterative and reiterative process. It is built upon the idea that failure leads to success, and that non-examples can be as important as actual examples themselves. You test and hone a geological model. You work to learn from the past in hopes of identifying their own mistakes for you to learn from and improve on.
Fireweed’s commitment to turning the prevailing geological model of Macpass on its head revolutionised both the project and the company. And this entire process was built on learning from mistakes and perservering through failure. This meant 1. Learning from others historical efforts, but also 2. Had to endure its own fair share of failures (which continue to this day!) before they discovered their resounding success. Had Fireweed closed up shop in response to their first dusters, they wouldn’t be where they are today.
Another example of this Brandon touched on is building a network of backers who understands the complexity of the industry and have the patience and vision to see the long term potential through any short term noise. Bringing on investors such as the Lundins is exactly this model. The Lundins famously took 20 years for their Vicuna district projects to achieve critical mass, and now they are some of the most successful exploration companies in the world. Without the patience and vision to endure, that would never have happened. Having them on as major shareholders of Fireweed is again one of those conviction-confirming moments for Fireweed and its investors.
This was an interview I enjoyed greatly. Fireweed Metals is an exemplar for the industry. The leadership team, the projects, the culture and approach - where many projects struggle to differentiate themselves in a crowded marketplace, Fireweed stands out. And for good reason. It remains odds-on a very compelling company, with clear pathways to strong valuation reratings and greatly reduced downsize risk. Ultimately, whether investing in Fireweed now, or another company in the future, understanding the lessons Fireweed has to teach on how to build and identify success in this industry would benefit any investor.
Part 2. Timestamped Summary
The following is timestamped summary of my conversation with Brandon. Timestamps are hyperlinked to that portion of the interview.
Click here for a lightly-edited (still with mistakes) automated transcript.
01:20: Brandon’s Elevator Pitch
MacPass flagship – ZN, Pb, Ag - major member of a massive, emerging, world-class Zinc district. Generations of mine life
MacTung – neighbour to MacPass – “probably the best tungsten deposit in the world”
Could meet North American tungsten demand for 50 years.
Gayna River Project – across the birder in NWT. Unique, high-grade Zinc deposit (analogous to Ivanhoe’s Kipushi deposit in DRC)
4:00: What does 2024 look like for Fireweed?
Tough to answer because they don’t know themselves yet
The markets present a challenge. If Fireweed had better valuation, you would see a very aggressive series of campaigns, but because valuations are lower they have to balance that against dilutionary impact.
The “Hollywood problem” of having two huge projects – they are hungry and demand exploration.
They have a strong and knowledgable board that has real power in decision making.
Dissenting voices – some favour slowing response to conditions, some want to continue to explore. Both carry risks.
They are fortunate because if they wanted to they could raise serious dollars.
09:35: Logic/rationale behind acquiring Gayna River
Purely opportunistic
Milton their celebrated chief geo compared Gayna to Kipushi
It is extremely remote but if Milton’s reimaginings are right again, Gayna could be massive.
Was acquired extremely cheaply. Cost $40,000. Less than a million to get some preliminary data out of it.
Wasn’t an attempt to beat the Lassonde curve. Still lots of exciting times ahead at MacPass.
13:10: Reflections on success of Fireweed -What do you credit it to?
First credit goes to the strength of the project.
People focus on the team – and that’s fair as bad teams can cause good projects to fail, but without a good project there’s nothing else.
Gives credit to Jack – had a theory in 2020 that these projects weren’t properly understood. (Not a SEDEX, but rather replacement model). Revolutionised their geological model
Patient board that gave them the time needed to achieve mastery.
Looked past the misses to understand the bigger picture.
Frustrated by share price – Up 30% roughly since IPO (91 cents to $1.19 as of Dec. 21)
The ups and downs always make him question his previous decisions.
The current Fireweed probably is one of the best possible versions of possible Fireweeds
Have performed very well in a very adverse resource and Zinc market
Strong backers who agree with their vision such as Lundins: Their success in Vicuna district shows how patient they can be.
Good science, good team, good culture.
21:00: What is Brandon’s attitude towards watching the share price
It is very important. Though maybe you don’t fixate on it until those exact moments (like placements) where it does matter.
Feels like a livestream report card of your work, but doesn’t always feel connected to your efforts. Can be cruel.
People calling their shots on charting downturns can be a knife twist.
Can be a challenge not to take personally sometimes. The judgement of the market can almost break you sometimes.
One of the most important traits of an entrepreneur is resilience.
24:00: What have you had to learn to succeed as an executive
Good fortune that Fireweed was simpler when he started and was able to learn on the job as it became more complex
Became a better public speaker and story teller. Understands what does and doesn’t resonate.
Became a better leader – there’s 100s of people who look to him as “the boss”
How to manage people effectively and act authoritatively
Becoming comfortable making decisions and being at peace that they won’t always be perfect.
27:20: Brandon’s attitude towards using social media to connect with shareholders
It is a tricky but important needle to thread.
It is a conversation they have at the board level.
It is a positive effort, but you have to be careful to not get dragged into pissing matches
He wants to show that he is accessible and communicate their longterm strategy accurately and effectively
Will naturally skew towards optimistic interpretations, but wants to tell the truth still
Watches other CEOs be excessively promotional and struggles with it
A short term solution unless you are an excellent liar
Manage frustration that others with less integrity will sometimes gain traction when you can’t
33:30: Closer Discussion of the geological model – What exactly did they do differently that is producing results?
Not actually SEDEX - replacement of Berite with Zinc sulphides that only looks like it was SEDEX, but actually was a replacement pulse of mineralisaiton.
Now, knowing it is replacement means they are looking for different horizons – horizons that are chemically reactive.
Looking for stratigraphy that is driven by nearby structure
40:00: What does Fireweed have earlier explorers didn’t
Last serious exploration before Fireweed on MacPass was in 1991. Obiovusly a lot has changed – missed the whole China super cycle.
Powerful computers that can produce extremely high confidence structures accounting for incredibly miunte sensitivitirs that can make anomalies appear and disappear.
One previous explorer missed a high grade discovery zone by not drilling 4 more meters
Brandon believes there is a data quality issue across the industry that is going to limit the effectiveness of AI. Just not yet able to account for all the nuances
44:00:: Inclusion in Silver Miner Index SILJ
You never get told before hand if you will be included or not
Fireweed reached out across various channels like LinkedIn requesting they look at them
Lots of different qualification criteria
Ended up being a bit of a surprise when it actually came
Introduced some positive volatility. Risk is there they might get dropped, but it won’t be sudden. Will likely end up increasing daily volume 15-20%
As investors flow into (or out of) Sivler/the ETF, Fireweed will see impacts of that
Looking at other funds. Difficult because there are lots of gold and PM ETFs, and lots of battery ETFs, but not a niche critical mineral one that would cover zinc and tungsten. There is no Zinc index
Liquidity attracts liquidity – allows larger investors to be able to establish positions according to their specific parameters.
Fireweed needs to attract larger, non-retail investors to get to the valuation Brandon thinks they can achieve ($1B?)
SILJ is part of the puzzle they are trying to build
50:30: Infrastructure – Skagway Port
Skagway is a natural destination for FWZ product
Closest port, 800km away
Govt announced $21.5M revitalisation project for the port to allow it to handle greater capacity for mining product (among other things)
Was seen as a conflict with cruise ships
Previous operators were not operating best practice – left some contamination behind
Ultimately Yukon and Skagway worked together and decied to rehabilitate the old mine-centric platform of the port, rather than demolish for another cruise ship dock.
Obviously is big for projects like Fireweed’s that is otherwise landlocked.
Teck’s Smelter at Trail BC is another option.
A little more expensive to get to than Skagway, but Teck would have cheaper transport than their current Asia-based supply). Probably can split the difference somehow
Due to Yukon exploration boom, there is the risk that Skagway could get to max capacity quickly
Looking at even shipping the conc and storing it somewhere other than Skagway, but he ultimately isn’t concerned. There will be a market for their product and they have options (none of which are cheap)
59:00: Does critical minerals trends factor into Trail vs Skagway?
Fundamentally it is a question of economics.
Discussion on Germanium – currently isn’t payable at smelters. However, China is starting to restrict access, which may change that.
Teck currently takes Germanium for free and refines it sells for product.
FWZ has lots of Germanium they don’t bother to include in economics but that might be a boost eventually.
Have to wait and see how critical minerals focus evolves and develops before that becomes a more serious factor.
Having China supply half of North American Tungsten is acceptable in way that today’s 80% or 100% isn’t.
Ultimately it has to come down to the question of if there will ever become a two-tier pricing system that rewards tier 1 jursidicitons.
1:02:00: Yukon Resource Gateway Program
~$150mm over 5 years to improve roads in Yukon for mining
Long stretch road connecting McPass to Whitehorse will now be sealed.
Ongoing consultations with local Indigenous groups
Brandon believes Economic and Environmental prosperity don’t have to be mutually exclusive.
Other funding opportunities. Critical Mineral funding.
Federal priority to connect Yukon grid to the rest of the country.
Emphasises his desire to be best in-class – safest, lowest cost, longest mine life, lowest carbon intensity, etc etc.
So there you have it. An excellent team, strong backing, multiple tier 1 projects, and a clear throughline to M&A value appreciation, Fireweed Zinc is one of those no-brainer companies where the downside is essentially removed, and it becomes a matter of proper entry timing and patience to see your investment appreciate. Brandon is a strong thinker and advocate for the Canadian mining industry and I enjoyed the opportunity to listen to him explore topics surrounding Fireweed Metals.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays
-Matthew from JRI
